Electricity Price Forecast as at 2024-06-16T10:00

This webpage displays some rough forecasts of hourly electricty prices for the next week, based on expected demand, wind and solar generation. I have also included the day ahead half-hourly prices (averaged to hourly) once these are known and have been imported.

The forecast methodology changed significantly on 1 June 2024. See below for details.

The prices are essentially estimates of the day ahead hourly auction results in p/kwh, converted into retail prices for region C by multiplying by 2, and adding 12 from 4-7pm. Prices include 5% VAT.

If you want to know how historic forecasts performed, you can see the latest forecast before a past datetime, eg http://energy.guylipman.com/forecasts?region=C&before=2020-12-31T12:00

It should be noted that future wind generation and resulting prices are likely to be significantly different than those forecast.

Forecasts up to 1 June 2024 were based on BMRS data, and a methodology loosely described in this blog post. You can also see the code for this model on github. The slope and intercept to transform net demand to price have been updated to constant values as up to date price data is no longer openly available.

Forecasts from 1 June 2024 are based on NGESO demand, wind and solar forecasts, and a constant slope and intercept to transform net demand to price. .

Estimates of Octopus retail prices for region C in p/kwh

Forecasts of gross demand, wind and solar generation, and resultant net demand