Electricity Price Forecast as at 2021-09-27T17:00

This webpage displays some rough forecasts of hourly electricty prices for the next week, based on expected demand, wind and solar generation. I have also included the day ahead half-hourly prices (averaged to hourly) once these are known and have been imported.

The prices are essentially estimates of the day ahead hourly auction results in p/kwh, converted into retail prices for region C by multiplying by 2, and adding 12 from 4-7pm. Prices include 5% VAT.

If you want to know how historic forecasts performed, you can see the latest forecast before a past datetime, eg http://energy.guylipman.com/forecasts?region=C&before=2020-12-31T12:00

It should be noted that future wind generation and resulting prices are likely to be significantly different than those forecast.

I have described the methodology used in a bit more detail in this blog post. You can also see the code for this model on github

Estimates of Octopus retail prices for region C in p/kwh

Forecasts of gross demand, wind and solar generation, and resultant net demand